Ginebra vs Meralco Finals Prediction

For the 3rd time, Ginerbra and Meralco will see each other again in the finals and it will start on Jan 7, 2020. Furthermore, many spectators may find the PBA finals heavily favored in Barangay Ginebra but in contrast, if we dig deep into the possible matchups, it is even-steven.   

Looking at the possible matchups

O   Almazan - Slaughter   O
O     Aguilar - Faundo      X

O    Brownlee - Durham  O  (very slight advantage Durham)

O     Pringle   -  Maliksi   O  (Slight advantage Pringle)

O       Tenorio - Amer      O  (Slight advantage Tenorio)

O   Thompson - Newsome  O 

O      Chan      -  Caram      O

O      Caguiao  -  Jackson   O

O     Dela Cruz -  Hodge    O    (Advantage to Hodge if Dela Cruz is not healthy)

O    Devance   -  Hugnatan O   (Slight advantage Devance)

X    Mariano  - De Ocampo O 

X    R. Aguilar -    Jose / Quinto  O  (If Jose is ready to play)

** (If Raymar Jose is ready to play) 
** (Bong Quinto is proven to be useful as well)

The addition of Maliksi in Meralco came at the right time. Maliksi is an underrated playmaker/passer for a shooting guard. Although Pringle can dominate more in terms of scoring, Maliksi can create shots for himself as well as being a threat with his passing (working as a decoy). 

Maliksi's scoring and playmaking can offset Pringle (but it is still clear than Pringle has an edge). But remember, the game cannot be decided in a one on one fashion but rather a team game, it is very apparent that the matchup is just equal. 

Strength and speed-wise, it will be hard for Ginebra to stop Allen Durham. If Brownlee takes Durham one on one, it may be hard for Brownlee to stop Durham because he just got even stronger this season, plus he might get into foul trouble doing so.

Durham also improved his shooting. But Brownlee is still Brownlee, even if Durham scores on one end, he can't also stop Brownlee from scoring as well (both imports can just cancel each other out) but there will be a very slight advantage for Durham if Meralco plays it right.

Amer is playing his best season at this conference. But Tenorio is relatively still in his prime and with all those experiences behind him, the slight advantage will favor Ginebra again.

Bench production seems to be very identical as well. There is no clear advantage (including the coaches). Both Coach Tim and Coach Norman are arguably the best coaches in the PBA today and both of them can utilize the bench pretty well.

In conclusion, even if the matchups are very close, its Ginebra who has a slight advantage over Meralco. Pringle and Brownlee should go "Russel Westbrook mode" and create triple-doubles for their team. Furthermore, if both of these guys will pass first rather than forcing the shots, the plays of Ginebra will be even smoother and they will get more momentum by involving the locals like Japeth Aguilar and company.

Ginebra's chances of winning the title should be around 65 to 70 % due to the slight advantages. However, Meralco beat the powerhouse Talk and Text not just by talent but by using Coach Norman's strategies. Coach Norman Black's "Black Magic" can pull an upset over Ginebra with his current roster. 

Series Prediction Winner: Meralco